Iran Says Missile Production Is Back on Track
Iranian technicians assemble missiles in concealed bunkers, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
Iran Says Missile Production Is Back on Track
U.S. officials claim heavy damage, but Iranian sources report ongoing assembly of liquid and solid‑propellant rockets.
Colonel Amir Hosseini, a senior officer in Iran’s missile corps, watched his crews load a liquid‑propellant missile in an underground hangar on March 12, 2026, after weeks of U.S. air raids.
U.S. Central Command logged more than 8,000 combat sorties and said it struck over 7,800 targets inside Iran during the first month of the conflict that began on Feb. 28, 2026. The numbers sound massive, yet the Wall Street Journal cited officials who said Iran kept a stockpile of components and continued to build both liquid‑fuel and solid‑fuel missiles underground.
Trump told Fox News on March 9, 2026 that the United States had destroyed most Iranian launch platforms, leaving “only 20 % remaining.” He repeated a similar line on April 1, 2026, calling the missile program “just about used up or beaten.” In a June 5 interview with NBC News, he guessed that “maybe 21, 22 per cent of their missiles” were still intact.
Iran’s missile factories are hidden, but they are humming.
“We have continued production despite the bombing,” an Iranian official told the Wall Street Journal. “Our engineers use stockpiled parts and work in underground facilities to keep the program alive.” The report adds that liquid‑propellant missiles need to be fueled before launch, while solid‑propellant rockets can sit ready to fire for months.
Jordan’s military said it intercepted 18 of 20 missiles that flew toward its air base in Azraq, with two landing in empty desert. The New York Times noted that two U.S. officials confirmed the strike on the base. Iran’s recent salvoes have also hit the UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, sending 165 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and 541 drones across the Gulf. Al Dafra Air Base, Abu Dhabi and Dubai International Airport suffered damage, as did Kuwait’s Al Ali Al Salem Air Base and Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.
Why the Numbers Matter
The disparity between U.S. claims and Iranian admissions creates a fog of uncertainty. If only a fifth of launch platforms are gone, Iran can still field a credible deterrent. Solid‑propellant missiles, which can be stored for long periods, give Tehran a quick‑reaction capability that complicates any further strikes.
The Mechanics of Underground Production
Underground missile assembly works by moving critical components, engine sections, guidance units, and propellant tanks, into reinforced chambers that are shielded from aerial detection. The chambers are typically built beneath existing civilian structures, which means that conventional bombing runs must either risk collateral damage or accept reduced effectiveness. Stockpiled parts, as mentioned by the Iranian official, allow work to continue even when supply lines are strained. Liquid‑propellant rockets require a fueling step just before launch, a process that is time‑sensitive and demands specialized equipment. By contrast, solid‑propellant rockets are pre‑loaded with fuel, making them ready to fire after only a brief final check. This technical distinction explains why the Wall Street Journal emphasizes the continued presence of both types.
Regional Ripples
Gulf states watch the skies with a mix of dread and resolve. Each intercepted missile reminds them that the conflict can spill over at any moment. The U.S. Navy is now re‑evaluating its headquarters in Bahrain after the Bahrain‑based installation took damage in recent months.
Analysts note that the underground nature of Iran’s production lines makes conventional targeting less effective. The facilities are reinforced with concrete and steel, and many are located beneath civilian infrastructure, raising the risk of collateral damage in any future strikes.
In response, the United Arab Emirates has accelerated its procurement of Patriot and THAAD systems, while Saudi Arabia is deepening its partnership with the United Kingdom on air‑defense integration. Both nations are also expanding their cyber‑warfare capabilities to disrupt Iran’s command‑and‑control networks.
Diplomatically, the European Union has called for an emergency summit of the United Nations Security Council, urging restraint on all sides. While the U.S. continues to press for “maximum pressure,” some allies argue that a negotiated cease‑fire could prevent further escalation and protect civilian populations.
Strategic Shifts in U.S. Targeting
U.S. military planners are now considering a shift from broad “area denial” strikes to precision “knock‑out” missions aimed at specific missile storage bunkers. This approach would require extensive intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) assets to verify target locations without causing excessive civilian casualties. The emphasis on precision reflects an understanding that destroying a few key depots could have a disproportionate effect on Iran’s ability to launch new missiles, especially those that are already assembled and awaiting fuel.
Looking ahead, the durability of Iran’s missile program will hinge on its ability to maintain a steady flow of raw materials despite sanctions. Reports suggest that clandestine smuggling networks are already moving key components through neighboring countries, keeping production lines humming even under pressure.
Open Questions Remain
Several uncertainties linger. First, the exact proportion of launch platforms that remain functional is still debated, with U.S. officials citing a low single‑digit figure while Iranian sources imply a much higher survivability rate. Second, the capacity of underground facilities to absorb further strikes without halting production is unclear. Third, the effectiveness of regional air‑defense upgrades in actually intercepting future salvos remains to be proven in combat conditions. Finally, the long‑term impact of sanctions on the flow of critical missile components is unknown, as smuggling routes may adapt or be disrupted.
Sources & Further Reading
What Happens Next
- July 15 2026 — U.S. officials plan a new round of precision strikes aimed at Iran’s underground missile depots.
- August 1 2026 — Gulf Cooperation Council holds an emergency summit to discuss collective defense measures.
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